You're Smarter Than You Think (Together)
In 1906, Francis Galton discovered something remarkable at a county fair. He asked 787 people to guess the weight of an ox. The average of all guesses was 1,197 pounds. The actual weight? 1,198 pounds.
This is the wisdom of crowds. And it's the scientific foundation of everything we do at RealityPicks.
Why Groups Beat Experts
Research consistently shows that diverse groups of non-experts outperform individual experts at prediction tasks. Here's why:
- Information aggregation — Markets efficiently combine thousands of data points
- Incentive alignment — When you have skin in the game, you think harder
- Error cancellation — Individual biases cancel each other out
- Diverse information — Each person brings unique knowledge
The RealityPicks Advantage
We've combined the wisdom of crowds with something powerful: a community of people who are genuinely obsessed with their subject matter. Reality TV superfans don't just watch — they analyze, theorize, debate, and deep-dive.
When you give these people a prediction market, magic happens.
Real Results
- Our community has consistently outperformed:
- Entertainment journalists on show outcomes
- Political pollsters on election results
- Social media sentiment on trending outcomes
- Individual "experts" on virtually everything
The Future of Prediction
We believe prediction markets will become the gold standard for forecasting. Not just for reality TV — for everything. And RealityPicks is proving it, one correct prediction at a time.
The crowd isn't just wise. It's revolutionary.